Cotton, Soybeans, and Geopolitics: A Global Tug-of-War

Why cotton and soybeans carry political weight
Not all crops influence geopolitics in the same way. Food staples like wheat, corn, and rice serve food security. Cotton and soybeans connect directly to industry.
• Cotton is a non-food industrial input that underpins apparel exports. Textile hubs such as Bangladesh and Vietnam rely on steady cotton imports to keep mills running [1][2].
• Soybeans are the backbone of global livestock feed and biofuels. China accounts for roughly 60 percent of world soybean imports [3].
Because these commodities sit at the intersection of economic growth and political influence, they often become bargaining chips in trade deals and sanctions.

The US and China trade war changed flows
When retaliatory tariffs hit US soybeans, China pivoted toward South American suppliers, especially Brazil, reshaping global flows within a few seasons [4][5]. Cotton saw a similar pattern. Tariffs and compliance risks disrupted long-standing relationships, pushing buyers to spread exposure across India, Brazil, the US, and West Africa [7][8].

Brazil, India, and West Africa are redrawing the map
Geopolitics in agriculture is no longer a two-player game.
• Brazil is the world’s leading soybean exporter and is projected to maintain dominance, according to USDA outlooks [6].
• West Africa has expanded its role in cotton exports, supplying Asian mills and diversifying buyers away from traditional origins [7][8].
For traders and manufacturers, this means monitoring multiple regions and stress-testing sourcing strategies against policy and weather shocks.

Why this matters for importing countries
Import-dependent economies feel the sharpest pain when politics or weather disrupt supply. Bangladesh’s ready-made garment industry and Vietnam’s spinning sector rely on cotton imports to stay competitive [1][2]. US cotton has also shifted toward markets outside China, including Vietnam, Pakistan, and Turkey [9]. When tariffs, sanctions, or shipping bottlenecks hit, costs jump and margins compress.

Climate and policy are now part of the price
In Texas, the 2022 drought pushed cotton abandonment to extraordinary levels, showing how quickly weather can tighten supply [10]. Regulation matters too. The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) is set to reshape traceability and due-diligence for soy and other risk commodities entering the EU market [11].

Use data and AI to see around corners
When politics, climate, currencies, and freight collide, prices can move fast. Traditional analysis struggles to keep up with signal volume across policy calendars, weather anomalies, trade flows, and futures markets. AI-powered forecasting helps by turning noisy inputs into actionable scenarios. Platforms like Cotcast AI digest data from policy announcements, satellite indicators, customs flows, and exchanges to surface earlier risk signals and improve hedging and purchasing decisions.

References
[1] USDA FAS, Bangladesh: Cotton and Products Annual (2025).
[2] USDA FAS, Vietnam: Cotton and Products Annual (2025).
[3] USDA FAS, Record U.S. FY 2022 Agricultural Exports to China.
[4] USDA ERS, The Economic Impacts of Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Agriculture.
[5] Reuters, China boosts soybean buys from Argentina and Uruguay (2025).
[6] USDA FAS, Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade (2025).
[7] ICAC, World Cotton Market Outlook.
[8] USDA FAS, Bangladesh cotton import composition, West Africa share.
[9] USDA FAS, Cotton: World Markets and Trade (2025).
[10] Texas A&M AgriLife Today, 2022 Texas cotton abandonment analysis.